Общая теория глобализации

БОЛЬШАЯ ЛЕНИНГРАДСКАЯ БИБЛИОТЕКА - РЕФЕРАТЫ - Общая теория глобализации

Общая теория глобализации

Mikhail Delyagin, Doctor of Economics

Public director of Globalization Problem Institute

General theory of globalization

«World for Russia:

the way we need it and what we can do with it»

(Analytical report open part in brief)

September 1998

Contents:

|Resume |2 |

|I. Information technologies expansion |3 |

|

| On difference significance in the technological time | |

|speed | |

|1.2. New resources for new technologies |9 |

|1.3. Old technologies «depreciation» |10 |

|II. Several consequences of markets globalization |12 |

|2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization |12 |

|2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism |13 |

|!2.3. Financial competition |14 |

| Technological process slowdown | |

|III. Global regulation for global competition |17 |

|3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»? |17 |

w6 |

|3.3. Value of global regulation |18 |

About the author in brief

Delyagin, Mikhail Gennadjevich, born in 1968, Doctor of Economics.

From 1990 till 1993 – expert of the B. Eltsyn Group of Experts, since

1994 – leading analyst of the President of Russia Analytic Department,

since 1996 – referent of the President of Russia assistant. Since March

1997 – advisor of the vice-prime-minister – Minister of Internals, since

June 1997 – advisor of the first vice-prime-minister Mr. B. Nemtsov. On his

leaving the government one day prior to August 17th, he established a

Globalization Problem Institute. In the beginning of October 1998 after new

government under Mr. Primakov had started its work, he was restored at the

public service.

He has more than 300 publications (including in the USA, Germany,

France, China, India, Egypt etc.), 4 monographs, with the latest - «Economy

of non-payments» was republished for three times since 1996 till 1997.

Resume

1. Information technologies development has brought to:

. «meta-technologies» creation, application of which makes it impossible

for the party which applies such technologies to compete with the

developers of these technologies;

. reorientation of technologies from necessary material objects

formation to necessary type of conscious and culture formation

(transformation from high-tech to high-hume);

. acceleration of information technologies development to such extent

that «short», theoretical investments are productive for the most

advanced information technologies;

. approximate depreciation of traditional technologies;

. Information society creation in which money plays second role as

compared with technologies.

7. Major humanity technological development prospects:

. Exacerbation and compelling character acquisition by divultion between

developed and backward countries, and also between developed countries

and creating new technologies and the rest developed countries;

. Insulation of people engaged in information technologies into internal

«information community», its concentration in the territory of the

developed countries; slow concentration of the «information community»

of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress

in the «most developed» countries;

. progress termination beyond the developed countries; social and

financial degradation of the developing countries;

. Possible abrupt slowdown of the progress in the result of global

financial crises and destructive competition between the USA and

European Currency Union.

12. Global monopolies formation is being performed:

. At global markets of separate financial instruments;

. In the course of these markets integration process (reduction of the

«transformation value» among them to negligible level) as information

technologies advance – in the form of the united global monopoly.

These processes will demand in the nearest future creation of the

overnational regulation mechanism for global monopolies, which will be of

more malaise character.

| The whole development of the humanity including in the field of |

|economics is determined nowadays and will be determined in the |

|nearest decade by progress to the new qualitative level with two |

|fundamental processes simultaneously: new technologies development, |

|information technologies primarily, and based on it quick competition|

|globalization, primarily in the financial markets. |

!lvl0I. Information technologies expansion

1.1. Information technologies: money recedes into the background

Technological development has brought in the middle nineties to actual

creation by the most advanced part of the humanity that very «information

community» which has been widely discussed for the last decades and so that

no one takes the matter seriously.

Realities of its functioning, casual connections and competitive

potential by the reason of intellectual and technological gap can be hardly

perceivable by those who are beyond of that process.

The most important way of showing this qualitative technological

breakthrough which has lead to creation of the information society and at

the same time one of its major parts is creation and quick distribution of

the so-called «meta-technologies».

Specifics of this type of technologies lies in that that the fact of

thier implementation makes for the party which uses such technologies

principially impossible to compete with the developer of these technologies

in a serious level. This may be called a price for access to the

effectiveness of a higher level which is provided by such technologies and

which might be found in dealer and licensed systems. Modern advanced

technologies in direct or indirect form place the user in the position of a

licensee.

The most telling examples of meta-technologies are:

. Network computer: distribution of its memory in the net provides

the developer with the whole information of the user and allows the

developer to interfere into activity of the latter or even to

control it (external control principle of the plugged in computer

has bee already realized);

. Modern communication technologies which allow to wiretap all

telephone messages all over the world; in the nearest future

computer processing of the whole volume of these messages and also

wiretap of all messages in the Internet will be possible;

. Different organization technologies; their main subgroups:

* Control technologies, including corporation activity

organization: oriented to culture and value system of the country

the developer, such technologies reduce competitiveness of the

corporations which represent other cultures; we should also note

that in general distribution within a society of a foreign types

of culture which do not integrate with the culture of the society

and as the result the culture which not only enriches it but

remains detached from it, makes competitiveness of this society

weaker;

* Formation of the mass conscious technology: permanent adaptation

of the latter to the forms of influence arouses objective

necessity in permanent renovation of the forms; without renovated

technologies which at first appear in the leading country and

then are distributed in other countries mass conscious of the

society using technologies which influence it will get out of

hand of the state.

Nowadays the said technologies have become predominating for their

being the most productive. These technologies having sweepingly spread for

the last years have already become a technological component of the

information society: if we speak about it from the technological point of

view we possibly half-consciously and non knowing about their peculiarities

we intend first of all meta-technologies.

It is quite natural, that conscious transformation from creation of

new technologies to their distribution and which is followed by creation of

information society was expressed in the clearest form by the leader of

this process Mr. W. Gates. He pointed out that the main factor for

information technologies development as compared with the previous of 1997

year, lays not in their upgrading but in complex usage of already existing

technical means for «information transparency» of all countries —

«transparency» as far as it can be understood quiet homogeneous for the

countries creating meta-technologies and aiming at protection of their

global competitive advantages.

But significance of information technology distribution is not limited

by creation of meta-technologies and safe provision of psychological,

intellectual and technological leadership of their creators. Besides

provision of global information transparency the most important part of

information technologies is the possibility (in 1999 it is still potential)

for deep and quite free reconstruction of mass conscious.

The point is that unlike traditional «material» technologies the

product of which are the goods, the product of information technologies

nolens volens is a certain condition of the human conscious including mass

conscious. Moreover: the most significant part of information technologies

was primarily aimed at such reconstruction of human conscious taking it

into consideration as the major purpose for influence.

It is more effective to influence conscious than to influence the

material. Technologies connected with it have already received the name.

They are called «high-hume» versus «high-tech». In previous times

technologies were oriented to matter but nowadays they are reorienting to

the public conscience, public culture. Besides their high productivity,

«high-hume» technologies differ with high changeability, i.e. maximum speed

of making progress.

The pioneers of their exploration — the USA — engage the most mobile

and in correspondingly the most effective form of financial capital —

venture capital — to creation of the most effective type of information

technologies. Engagement of such capital to creation of the ordinary

technologies as it is may be shown by the experience of the developing

countries is impossible because of «slowness» of the non-information

technologies: performance of any project connected with such technologies

demand for larger time period than traditionally «short» venture capital is

ready to be invested.

In the result of it we observe destructive non-compliance of the speed

of the venture capital turnover and establishment of traditional

technologies. Wide-ranging investments of the venture capital are not

effective for the national economy because of the said factors: it leaves

without creating anything real and leaving after it only desolation.

But the speed of information technology development has a qualitative

higher rank than ordinary technologies. That is why information

technologies are the only type of technologies in respect of which «short»

venture capital has a quite normal productivity. Their technological cycle

is so small that it corresponds to the speed of the financial capital

turnover.

That is why the American economy should not be afraid of «distending a

soap exchange bubble»: it looks like a soap bubble only from outside.

Actually the huge part of these venture investments is directed into the

information technologies and at expense of their accelerated tempo of their

development carries for their recipient quite normal productive but not

venture character.

This is the principal advantage of the American economy over economics

of other countries of the world. This is the reason for its medium term

stability in the forthcoming global financial

|On difference significance in the technological time speed |

|Significance of the time factor in new conditions is evidently |

|demonstrated by the mass bankruptcy of computer firms in the USA. The|

|bankruptcy is followed by the fact that implementation of new |

|technological principles demands for such period of time that these |

|principles become outdated. |

|Thus, the company which directs a part of its resources from the |

|sphere of technological race to the practical realization of new |

|decisions reaches the slow scale of «technological time» and fails as|

|compared with its competitors which remain in the zone of «pure» |

|sphere of new ideas development in which the technological times |

|changes in a quicker way. |

But application of «high-hume» technologies is connected also with

danger. Thus, seeming easiness and impunity of conscious influence arouse

the most dangerous professional illness of the employees engaged in the

sphere of public relations – it! is the temptation to solve problems not in

the real way but with the help of the so-called «brainwashing» method or we

may use more exact German analogue of this term: ote Seelenmassage».

The first problem of «high-hume» is connected with it: on carrying

away by it the control system (of the state or of the corporation) starts

the process of self-hypnosis that makes it inadequate. It is principally

important: «high-hume» technologies are dangerous not only for the object

of their influence, but for their user as they also transform conscious of

the user.

The second problem: to reach the political result it will be enough

for the user of the «high-hume» technology to form necessary type of

conscious of no more than 20% of the population being the elite of the

society and influence on taking resolutions and being the example.

Efforts in this direction evidently draw the line between the elite

and general mass of population and create within the society internal

disagreements between the self-hypnosed elite and the rest population.

Moreover: the elite being apart from the population began to percept the

ideas, which correspond to its principles. In the result of it 80% of the

intellectual potential of the society is lost – while the

Thus, gradual appliance of information technologies in respect of the

elite class of the society is limited by the area of democratic borders of

the elite class itself and that is why it reduces the society potential. We

saw the example of the Russian reformers of 1992 — 1998 years, who could

run away from the population by application such advanced information

technologies to themselves to such extent as the communists could do for

seventy years of their domination.

In the result of it we have a paradox: more advanced informa6tion

society should be less flexible and adaptive and as a result less viable

but more stable in its confrontation with non-information society. Is not

it the reason for paradox viability of the authoritarian regimes in the end

of XX century?

It is possible that this phenomenon is an «implemented guarantee» from

the informational imperialism, from subordination of the entire world to

one the most informed country. And the total mortification of the conscious

of other countries with the help of information technologies is impossible

because of differences in cultural aspect which automatically defend

minimal intellectual and information sovereignty of each nation separately.

But it would be too naive to hope for it as the major resolution of the

forthcoming problems under the circumstances of gradual integration of

cultures into united culture for the whole world (On the first stage into

three major cultures — Christian, Islamic and Buddhistic).

Taking into consideration a private case of information war – «culture

aggression» (i.e. obtrusion of its own culture to the society the potential

of which it does not correspond) as an instrument of international

competition (applied only mainly in the inconscient way, in the order of

markets winning for sale — the carries of such culture), we should re-

estimate the role playing by traditions.

Traditions are the psychological protection from something new: it is

the attempt to live as if nothing has happened. In the conditions of

reconstruction of mass conscious of actual and probable competitors of the

tradition starts to act not like an ostrich, but it goes through

minimization of negative consequences in changes having «squatter» order:

attempt to cancel by ignoring of these charges or cancellation of their

major part. I.e. it is a spontaneous reflection of the information attack

by the information method.

* * *

The above said means that creation and distribution of meta-

technologies reduces significance of financial resources from the point of

view of competitiveness of the societies and corporations: if they have

been the main source of power earlier, now they become only its

consequence. Intellect has become the main source of the market power.

Intellect is embodied in organizational structures of the research and

market corporations creating meta-technologies and holding control over

such technologies.

Rephrasing Mr. M. Fridman we can say that money recedes into the

background after creation of the information society. The reason lies in

the following: that property right for the meta-technologies makes an

organically inalienable part of the holder and his intellect, with the help

of which these technologies have been created and are supported, according

to technological reasons.

Meta-technologies in a greater degree will transform in a «second

nature» making the borders and creating conditions for development of the

personality and the humanity in general. As such these technologies will

gradually exchange market relationship and property rights performing these

functions since the moment of money appearance.

1.2. New resources for new technologies

Disintegration of the USSR has given to the developed countries such a

financial and intellectual possibility that they were able to speed up

their development on the «lagan» of the disintegrated USSR (differences in

orientations and correspondingly outlook for Europe and the USA shows that

the first one has got finances and the latter – intellect). Thus, having

won in the cold war developed countries not only destroyed their global

antagonist as we have got used to consider but they managed to do more:

they have captured and used its resources which were truly speaking

dreadfully used (the socialism differed from the capitalism also in the

fact that on preparing the best in the world people resources it united

them into organizations in the worst way).

It has a principal importance that in the new information

postindustrial world the most important resources are first of all finances

and intellect, which may travel very easily from one territory to another,

but not the territory with fixed production and people.

That is why the appeal to the people from developed countries, who are

capable to organize system of government, had no sense in the nineties: new

major resources for development are not attached to a certain territory!

Nowadays the effective frontier consists not only in recovery of the

society within such a territory but otherwise in isolation within the

society with further exemption from its main part of healthy and

progressive elements, i.e. people – carriers of finances and intellect.

In such method of frontier the progress of the more developed

«frontiering» society goes at expense of degradation of the society on

frontier, and the scales of degradation of the society on destruction outgo

victory in culture and in progress of the more developed society. As

compared with traditional harmonic processes of development, development at

expense of a alien degradation has always the character of a «play with

negative sum».

Thus, distribution of information technologies has changed on a

qualitative level value of resources placing on the top position intellect

and finances, which are more mobile nowadays. It has changed the process of

cooperation between developed and developing countries: constructive

frontier of the last by the latter with the help of direct investments into

the real sector has started to climb down to the destructive frontier with

the help of exemption of financial and intellectual resources.

Understanding of realias and consequences of such transformation has

given birth to the theory of «dead countries»: under influence of the new

information imperialism, the developing countries become actually «dead»,

as they irretrievably loose not only the most important intellectual

resources for development but also the possibility to produce them. This

leaves nothing in store for them.

1.3. Old technologies «depreciation»

Irreversible lag of the developing countries is creating not only by

the reason of «wash» from them of the most valuable under the new

conditions resources, and also due to collapse of the usefulness of

traditional resources and technologies which these societies dispose. As

the most important result of each new level of development of the humanity

from the point of view of the practical politics is comparative

depreciation of all «old» technologies and products or their appliance as

they are distributed.

Depth of such depreciation will be in proportion to the primitiveness

of the «old» technologies and to the level of monopolization and

competitiveness of the market of such technology products. In accordance

with this rule we have a depreciation first of all technologies of the

mineral industry because of distribution of the information technologies.

First of all this process influences oil, world market of which is

liberalized in the most extent.

And as the result of it we have a regular reduction of its price in

the world market (in 1999 according to estimations to the level of no more

than 8 dollar per barrel) that is followed not so much by the agreement

between the USA corporation and the Saudi Arabia but more deeper factor:

creation of new information technological lifestyle which has new

qualitative level. Such lifestyle has started depreciation of the previous

lifestyles by the fact of its appearance.

That is why reduction of prices all over the world for the raw

materials and in a broader sense for the products engaging little

intellectual work will become a tendency deviation from which will be non-

significant fluctuations. In this sense the USA actively placing its not so

much ecologically but intellectually «impure», i.e. too simple productions

has got a maximal guard from negative consequences of their own technical

breakthrough.

* * *

Summing up the above said we may make a list of consequences for new

technologies development:

. Exacerbation and acquisition of final – at the same time keeping the

existing tendencies – compelling character between:

v developed and the rest countries;

v creating new technological principles by the developed countries

(it is possible that we should use the term «the most developed /

advanced countries») and the rest developed countries;

. Insulation, which take place in all countries, of people engaged in

information technologies into internal «information community», its

concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slow

concentration of the «information community» of the world and together

with it concentration of the world progress in the «most developed»

countries;

. progress termination or its abrupt slowdown (at least technical)

beyond the developed countries; social and financial degradation of

the developing countries;

. reduction of the number of developed and the most developed countries

because of hard competition.

XXVI. Several consequences of

markets globalization

2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization

The process of distribution of information technologies is influenced

by the process of globalization which is created by the process of

distribution of information technologies but which has the same level of

importance. Formation of the united world markets at least in the financial

sphere and gradual integration of the global markets of different financial

instruments into united world market includes into the agenda the question

referring to creation of the global monopolies.

The reason of it is very simple: it is impossible to divide a single

market.

Well-known examples of market division had either quite a short period

of existence, as compared with the term of existence of the domination

product, or were based on objective backsets. That made access to a part of

competitors to any principally significant element of the market more

complicated.

Information technologies reducing transaction expenses to minimum and

also an «entrance fee» to the global financial markets destroy these

backsets, eliminating any possibilities for any stable part of these

markets. Term of existence of the dominating product – information – is

going down to zero that makes practically impossible even temporal division

of these markets.

In the result of it creation of global monopolies has got two

simultaneous directions:

Formation of global monopolies in the global markets of separate

financial instruments;

Formation of the united global monopoly in the result of integration

of the said markets (reduction of «price for transformation» from one

market to another down to a very small level).

The American government plays the role of the latter monopoly as it

has very close contacts with the based in the territory of the USA

transnational corporations including financial most of which due to the

specifics of their activity do not need any organizational formation.

The matter may have the following form: the world policy will recently

terminates its existence on the state level, transforming, on one part, to

the national level of global groups of capitals and technologies and on the

other part – to the internal level of political life of the country

controlling over the major part of these capitals and technologies.

(In 1997 during the progress of the proamerican «team of young

reformers», the Russian lobbyists were greatly amazed at finding out that

the sphere of the most effective lobbying of several matters in the

internal Russian politics had transformed from the Governmental level and

the level of the President's Administration to the level of the Congress

and the USA administration. In the USSR all matters having principal

importance referring to development of the republics or regions should be

solved not by their own authorities but by the curators of the

corresponding directions in Moscow – in the Central Committee of the

Communist Party of the Soviet Union and in the Council of Ministers.)

2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism

In 1999 the rest tow parts of the process of monopoly globalization

will elapse against the most important event of the century – commencement

of the process for euro integration. Commencement of European currency

integration will be the first real after establishment in the beginning

nineties of the total world financial crisis attempt which has chances to

become a success to depth regional integration up to the level which will

dominate over global integration.

Integration of «euro» will reduce foreign currency reserves of banking

systems of the world (firstly of Europe) and will release from them a great

amount of dollars (only in China about tens milliards).

Besides, settlements at European market of energy carriers are made in

dollars. Transformation of these settlements into euro will be after

integration of the latter simply a matter of time, let it even be long, but

it will release several tens of milliard dollars.

At last purchasing capacity of the maximum European banknote in 500

euros will be higher of the purchasing capacity of the maximum banknote of

the USA denominated in 100 dollars. It will transfer into euro the major

part of the large sums in cash in Europe, and not only in the countries of

the currency union but also in the neighboring countries, - also tens of

milliard dollars.

Apparent non-solicitude of the «Eurozone» leaders of the future of

such dollars carries an extremely destructive character of inactivity not

only for the USA but also for the rest of the world. Actually this

inactivity provokes the USA to strengthen the process of further

destabilization of the financial system of the world.

European dollars and China dollars should be absorbed by other

countries not to destabilize the USA on their coming back to the country.

Such absorbation of the world reserve currency to a great extent happens

only under the conditions of a very deep economic destabilization. Such

extent may be only compared with its release under the process of euro

integration.

Thus, egoistic indifference of Europeans to welfare of the main global

competitor – the USA – in a strategic plan provokes the latter to make

destructive steps in respect of not only the eurozone economic power of

which is protected from a short-term influence but in respect of the third

parties, i.e. countries which are less stable and due to this reason these

countries are a favorable potential recipient of the releasing dollars.

The most threatened regions are the Latin America (first of all it is

Brazil) and several countries of the South-Eastern Asia and may be China.

2.3. Global financial competition outlook: technical progress slowdown

Attempt to carry out sterilization of dollars through disorganization

of national economic system can not be the decision for a problem even if

such method allows to postpone the decision of the problem despite of its

being very expensive.

There are two final and real variants to solve the problem:

First – carrying out of long-term investments of the releasing dollars

into large projects in the zones of mutual influence of the USA and Europe

(for example: reconstruction of the Transsib aimed at establishment of the

united transport European-Asian line «London-Tokio»). As Russia still

remains under political influence of the USA and under economic influence

of Europe, sterilization of the extra dollars of the world in the territory

of Russia will be for the USA an exchange of a part of its geopolitical

influence to the short-term and medium-term economic safety.

This variant demands for not only constructive approach to the problem

(for example: it corresponds to the demands of the overheating economy of

Japan) but also consent of the Russian society for its deep healthening or

at least readiness for it.

The second variant – taking a pause which may be gained after dollar

runoff to the destabilizing «second economics» of the world for

organization of the head-on competitive collision with the eurozone, first

premonition of which could be found with non-united European economy in the

September, 1992, and with only starting its trip to integration economy of

the South-Eastern Asia in the second half of the 1997 year.

This scheme allows the USA to take the strategic initiative and make

its own choice of time, sphere and the character for this collision that

taking into consideration factor of abruptness gives the USA an advantage.

At static consideration of outlook for such collision based on

comparison of the already existing resources, Europe has advantageous

chances. But as compared on the point of view of dynamics taking into

consideration level of expenses, increasing role of newest technologies and

actually «natural» (after disintegration of the USSR) monopoly of the USA

on holding its holding and development performed with taking into

consideration cardinal differences of the American and European bureaucracy

(the first one – creates, the second – exists) makes us to make our choice

in favor of the USA if we have a long-term outlook for future.

Influence of «dynamic» factors of the technological quality and

bureaucracy on the modern competition may be indirectly seen comparison of

losses borne by European and American capitals in Russia and South-Eastern

Asia: in both cases losses of Europeans were greater than that of the

Americans from all points of view. Besides, if in the USA losses were borne

only by structures, which do not make the main part of the national

economy, with high risk possibility, but in Europe – losses were borne by

the banks making the basic part of its banking system.

There is no reason to consider that in the nearest years proportion of

effectiveness of two financial and governmental systems will change

greatly.

Besides, the USA will always be able to carry out discrimination in

this or that form of at least a cash part of dollars which are outside the

USA. It may be performed for example under the slogan of struggle with

international crime: first of all, this thesis is a standard method using

by the USA in its international competitiveness, and then – it is true:

turnover of the major part of the US dollars outside the territory of the

USA in this or that form is connected with law violation, and, thus, the

USA progress is based to a certain extent on lurking stimulation of the

criminal activity outside the USA.

Of cause, such discrimination will abruptly limit the most important

financial part of the economic power of the USA – usage of their national

currency as an international reserve currency and that is why it may be

used only as «the last means».

But in any case not depending on the result of the global financial

confrontation between the USA and European Currency Union it will lead to

the unfavorable event for the humanity: cardinal slowdown of the China

economic development which may be followed by its destabilization, regress

and even disintegration.

China mainly develops as an export oriented country integrated into

the markets of Europe and the USA. Collision will reduce purchasing

capacity of the outgoing party and correspondingly will reduce its import

including from China. And this collision won’t depend on the result of

collision between Europe and the USA.

China will hardly bear such an abrupt reduction in its export, which

will be the catalyst of all its internal problems, which are now in an

inchoative stage. Destabilization of China will be such an event that will

be able up to 2015 year set the whole world economy in chaos (except the

winner: the USA or the eurozone).

Truly speaking, victory of the latter will be a Pyrrhic victory:

leaving behind the competitors and together with them the whole world for a

generation (of people and main technologies), it will loose the main sale

markets for its products that will slowdown its own development.

In that case we will have a losing or at least conservation of the

most advanced technologies: in the event of eurozone victory – because it

does not know how to create them, and in the event of the USA victory –

because of abrupt reduction of the sale markets and realization of these

technologies, that will weaken in cardinal way stimulus for their

development an will reduce resources engaged for such purposes.

Thus, transformation of disagreement between the eurozone and the USA

connected with integration of euro and release of the extra dollars to the

level of negative competition will be followed by the possibility of

slowdown of the development of the whole mankind.

III. Global regulation for global competition

3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»?

Possibility of slowdown of the development of general human technical

progress as it was shown in the previous paragraph is a minor point of the

general rule: development may have only total character. Any attempt to

force back the competitors disrupt the development making it narrower and

poor and increasing the level of monopolization through reduction of sale

markets to the products of the winner, and leads, thus, to the total

slowdown of the development and stagnation.

It is quite evident: for the mankind itself problems of its own

development has already become very difficult according to our traditional

understanding. National states come across with such thing that their

«habitat» is spontaneously formed by overnational structures (including

overnational structures holding meta-technologies), which, thus,

predetermine their actions and lead the mankind to serious cataclysms and

abrupt slowdown of the development due to their egoistic motives.

If we do not want to allow the described consequences it is necessary

to establish that very international economic regulation which was

mentioned in practical terms after Lenin for the first time by G. Soros:

«economic UNO», which differs from the already existing political economy

with qualitatively smaller level of bureaucratization as financial

processes have qualitative difference as they are more quick and

correspondingly demand for their regulation quicker actions and

effectiveness in general than that of the political processes.

Existing intellectual and consulting «stages» of global financial

groups notwithstanding to the dominating influence on them of the USA, may

become an embryo of such organization. The main trace of character for such

organization providing as in the case with UNO principal capability shall

become the general understanding of reality of mutual destruction enforcing

the strongest partners to search for the compromise with more weak partners

and even vesting them with right of veto in respect of strategic and more

complicated matters.

3.2. New generation of TNC «the wind of Gods»

The main task of the organization aimed at performance of

international economic regulation is the regulation of the transnational

monopoly activity. Besides it is very important to understand that the old

TNC are not the owner of the world any longer. The global financial groups,

development of common and meta-technologies replace them. These groups are

very often non-formalized (that makes their regulation more complicated),

but their effectiveness, mobility and many-sidedness exceed analogue

qualities of the traditional TNC.

For better understanding of the actual problem it will be enough to

note that coincided with increase of activity transformation in 1993 of

researchers performed by transnational corporations from the special body

of the UNO (UNCTC) which in general was able to meet the task, to the lower

level – the department of the UNCTC, which considers development of the TNC

mainly from the departmental positions of this organization (in respect of

trade and development) and due to institutional reasons in general cannot

cope with complex observance and analysis of their activity.

This is the first sign of finding by this or that group of the crucial

influence: termination of unpleasant for this group (as a minimum

independent, and in case of absence in demand in advertising – any

external) researches of this group.

As we can see it in the first chapter, the technological leader of the

mankind – Mr. Gates – is only going to provide information transparency of

other countries – but overnational monopolies influencing the world greatly

leave him behind for several years preventively liquidating globally even a

possibility of primitive statistical research of the development.

3.3. Value of global regulation

Increase of influence of the overnational monopolies may reproduce the

situation of the end of twenties and thirties of this century. At that time

domination of private monopolies in the economies of the most developed

countries (including to certain extent the USSR) had lead to their

stagnation and to the Great Depression. There were formed on the national

levels mechanisms of state control over monopolies in the course of the

struggle with the Great Depression, but it was defeated only in the course

of preparation for World War II.

Taking into consideration these events but from the point of view of

power, we should pay our attention to very significant drawbacks of the

purely economic approach. Thus, we got used to consider the immediate cause

of the Great Depression the mistake made by the American government: in

that very moment when from the economic point of view it was necessary to

alleviate financial policy it was otherwise cardinal toughen that was

followed by crash on the stock exchange and economic catastrophe.

But the fact which from the economic point of view was inexcusable

mistake, from the political point of view it was the only way out. As in

those days America had to solve the main and the only question of power.

Question of the economic welfare was of a minor importance for any

practical politician.

When there is a threat to economic conjuncture there was a question:

who should govern the country – state under conditions of democracy

oriented in general to the interests of the society, or several private

monopolies («oligarchies») oriented to their own interests which are in

contradiction to the social interests.

And for the purpose of restoration of its dominating position

partially lost after creation and heyday of private monopolies in the

twenties, the American government without any doubt and at once with

determination which is very typical for Mr. Chubais (Russian reformer known

for his extreme and drastic measures aimed at improvement of economic

situation in Russia – annotation of the translator) plunged the country

into unknown in the history of mankind catastrophes which destroyed almost

the half of national economy and left a scar in the soul of every American

survived in these catastrophes.

I would like also to underline two 60 years old events important for

better understanding of the current situation.

First of all, this dreadful resolution was right from the historical

point of view, as private monopolies due to objective reasons were unable

to perform necessary functions of the state, and their domination could be

followed by greater catastrophe for the society, though it could happen

later (that is quite evidently shown on the example with Russia of 1995 –

1998 years).

Secondly, it was a spontaneous resolution adopted on the level of

collective conscious (or even «collective unconscious») of the state and

the society. There are not proves for the fact that the political aspect of

resolution was established by several even holding posts of a very high

rank participants of the event. Though it is evident that they fully sensed

the political aspect of the events described would never want to disclose

it.

It is possible that in the nearest future the mankind will have to go

through spontaneous and non-understanding by several contemporaries

resolution of such a question referring to power (taking into consideration

accelerating course of progress) on the level of world economy and world

policy. It is possible that it will be as difficult for developed economics

as it was difficult for industrial and financial centers of the USA in the

end of twenties (that is indirectly proved by our forecast on slowdown of

technical progress of the mankind), and it will be also destructive for

less developed countries as it was destructive for the American

agricultural godforsaken regions of that period of time.

It is also possible that «economic UNO» which was spoken above will be

created as a mechanism to control over overnational corporations and mainly

to control over global financial groups. And as the result it may become

the power of the world.

As for the external event referring to our economic system (i.e.

referring to the whole mankind) which will find out the way from depression

resulting after crisis, this event will also leave no time for delay and

compromise and it will mobilize the mankind as World War II did it. And it

is impossible to foresee such event even with the lowest positive degree of

accuracy.

We cannot but hope the leaders of the mankind (to which we cannot

refer our country) like 60 years ago will be the first to see it and notify

the other with word of mouth of their strategist and city mad people.